Coffee touched $ 2 per pound, one of the highest price indices achieved in 2009. The product is holding up and that price not seen since May, when average was $ 2.07 per pound. In general, high prices of grain in the world market have been pressured, indirectly by Colombia, with exports in 2009 will be lower in three million bags, from 11.5 million in 2008 to 8,100,000 bags of 60 kilos, well below the initial estimate of 12 million bags. Meanwhile, domestic producers have also had good news, because between the first Tuesday of December and January 5th the domestic price of buying the bag of coffee export of 125 kilos recorded in Armenia rate up to 70,000 pesos, going of 620,500 pesos to 690,500. During the last month reached more than 700,000 paid in pesos more of the 15 departments coffee, the report of the Federacafé. Now, the expectation for the civil year (January to December) and coffee (it closes at 30 September) are best, as it is expected that coffee production is normalized with the entry of new areas renovated, which is estimated better production and productivity. This, directly, will continue to be paid the premiums for the best quality of Colombian coffee and recover the world coffee market. Another of the expectations of coffee, which is impossible to control, is the devaluation of the Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar. For example, in the last month has gone from 1,998.45 pesos per dollar, to 1,992.50, but has reached the cap of 2,054 pesos (December 21).
The international price of grain rose to $ 2.11 yesterday May 12. The amended scheme guild domestic price. This price was reported by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and, paradoxically worries the national coffee institutions. According to the ICO, the reference price for May 12, which was released today is 211.32 cents per pound of Colombian mild Arabic. But in New York, even as the price reached 226.25 cents per pound. The reference price is an average between the market of New York and Germany. In this country, the pound reached 199.58 cents. These prices are the highest since 1997. The concern of the OIC itself and exporters consulted is that the Colombian coffee is rising simply because there is sufficient supply after winter last year. As prices rise, to meet the commitments would have to respond with lower quality coffee while beverage producers would replace the Colombian blended coffees by others. The Government and the National Federation of Coffee Growers now define a strategy to try to make the most of high grain prices recorded in the international market, despite the low production reported by the country. Finance Minister Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, anticipated that there will be measures to ensure that growers can benefit 500,000 families of favorable prices. Therefore, he said, will announce the implementation of a new system of valuation and the domestic price of grain. This is a scheme approved by the National Coffee Committee that encourages grain quality and seeks to improve the income of producers. The rare moment of prices has become a paradox for the sector, as there is enough coffee to sell. Jorge Lozano, president of the Association of Coffee Exporters Private, Asoexport, said "there is distress in the guild" because you do not have enough product to meet the offices. "The farmer has to be happy because you are compensating for the lack of production with a very good price. Unfortunately not much to sell and that is our trouble, "admitted the leader. He said that despite the good prices the prospect of a boom not seen anywhere, because there is simply no grain available. "It's very unpleasant for the toaster. He has the need to buy Colombian coffee and high prices do not like or five. And it will find that not happen again, "he said. "We have a client who is looking for alternatives. That's not good for Colombian coffee, "the President of Asoexport. Lower production Lozano said it is anticipated that between July 2008 and June, coffee production falling 2.5 million bags compared to previous period. This is a "very important figure," he added, facing a production of 11.5 million bags estimated for the entire year. The official revealed that even though still undelivered production figures last April, "the decline was substantial because the records of coffee for export stood at about 450,000 bags, 200,000 less than normal." According to the National Federation of Coffee, Colombian production fell 30% in the first two months of 2009 compared to same period last year, while exports declined by 20%. According to the report, the fall was due to "lower production of grain, fruit of the renovation of coffee plantations, the effects of reduced fertilization and winter of the last months of 2008." Meanwhile, the escalating price of coffee is attributed by economic analysts to a phenomenon of market speculation. Indeed, investors fear that this year there will be a substantial reduction in the supply of major producing countries like Brazil, and have begun to bet on higher prices in the future, so the price began to climb. In Brazil, the production will fall about six million bags this year, according to estimates by the Government of that country.
But while the value of the product reaches unexpected levels, the dollar continues to fall, which has increased the appreciation of the peso. The record price recorded by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), not seen for a decade (May 1998). In the domestic market prices also rose this year as the load of 125 kilos, as the price for receiving the coffee farmers' cooperatives in the holds of Almacafé has been these days at 500,000 pesos, but now in A minimum of 521. 500 pesos (in Cucuta) and 525,250 (Santa Marta). Producers such as Mario Gomez Estrada, Caldas representative on the National Committee of Coffee Growers, think that the international price is not a panacea, as in Colombia, production costs have increased, in labor and inputs (fertilizers). Despite the surge in grain prices, producers can not exploit the full extent of the price because now there is no harvest, for the next harvest season is scheduled for April and May when the production comes the so-called crop mitaca. During this period, the highest production is recorded in the departments of Tolima, Huila, Cundinamarca and Santander. This means that the traditional coffee-growing region, consisting of Quindio, Risaralda and Caldas, shall be excluded from the current prices as most grain production in that region is recorded in the second half, during October and November. However, the good behavior during the past months can contribute to crop the Coffee mitaca, exceeds that of previous years. The minibonanza comes as the country has decreased considerably the cultivated area of coffee, as a result of the crisis that was experienced since the early 90's and the conversion of farms to turíticas activities. Good prices were predicted Although the current situation of international prices had been predicted by experts, the current price of $ 1.50 per pound was not in the plans of those who sell the grain on the NYSE. So far, projections indicated that prices were going to keep on top of a pound, but at no time spoke of the figure recorded yesterday. The increase in contributions due, according to market analysts, the increased demand and reduced inventories.
